There is a lot of noise in the world right now….Conflict overseas, disrupted shipping routes, volatile oil markets, and the usual flood of commentary can make it tempting to swing to one of two extremes:
- ignore it completely, or
- panic buy and assume the worst.
Neither response is particularly helpful.
The more useful approach for farmers is the same one that serves us well in most parts of business and farming life: stay calm, understand where the real risks sit, and make a practical plan. That feels especially relevant when it comes to fuel.
At the time of writing (9th April 2026), New Zealand’s fuel supply remains stable. Government reporting indicates that onshore and incoming stocks are sufficient and there is currently no need for New Zealanders to change how they purchase or use fuel (MBIE, 2025–2026). At the same time, globally, the picture is more uncertain. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and disruption to key shipping routes such as the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to create volatility in oil markets and freight costs (IEA, 2026; UNCTAD, 2025).
The important thing here is to avoid the urge to fear-monger or panic, but instead take this as a call to think ahead.
For farm businesses, the question is not, “Will we run out of diesel next week?”. The better question is, “If fuel becomes more expensive, harder to access, or more tightly rationed for a period of time, where are we exposed, and what can we do now to reduce that risk?”
Scroll to the bottom to download our simple two-page Fuel Resilience Checklist for Farmers.
Why fuel matters so much on farm
Fuel is not just about filling the ute. It sits behind a surprising number of core farm functions.
New Zealand agriculture is a major user of off-road diesel and off-road petrol. Estimates suggest around 29% of New Zealand’s diesel use is off-road, with agriculture the largest single user within that category (EECA, 2023). and with petrol the story is not too dissimilar; with 13.8% of New Zealand’s petrol use being off-road and agriculture is the second largest user within that category, second to marine recreation (EECA,2023). Much of this fuel is delivered directly to farms and stored onsite, rather than purchased through retail stations (EECA, 2023).
That matters because fuel risk can show up in several places at once:
tractors, motorbikes, UTVs, utes and other vehicles
irrigation pumping and generator backup
feeding-out, cultivation, drilling and harvest operations
freight and contractor availability
milk collection, livestock transport and input delivery
fertiliser pricing and wider farm input costs, particularly where global energy and shipping markets are under pressure (UNCTAD, 2025)
Even if there is no physical shortage at the pump, a period of high prices or delivery delays can still hit margins, timing, and stress levels.
What fuel disruption could actually mean for farmers
For most farms, the more likely short-term risk is not “no fuel at all”. It is tighter supply, delayed deliveries, price spikes, or localised interruptions that make a busy period harder to manage. It can also increase the value of fuel already stored on farm, making security and monitoring more important than usual.
New Zealand’s fuel security planning acknowledges that in the event of a sustained disruption, fuel may need to be prioritised for essential services, and supply constraints could occur at a regional or sector level (MBIE, 2025).
That could mean:
1. Higher operating costs
Diesel and freight costs can rise quickly when oil markets are disrupted. Those costs may hit directly through the fuel bill, and indirectly through cartage, contractor rates, and input prices. Higher energy costs are also linked to increased fertiliser and transport costs globally (UNCTAD, 2025).
2. Pressure on timing-sensitive jobs
Some farm jobs are not easily postponed. Irrigation windows, silage, drilling, harvesting, cartage, stock movements, and animal welfare jobs still need to happen. If fuel access tightens during one of those periods, the pressure increases significantly.
3. Flow-on effects through suppliers and contractors
Your farm might have enough fuel on hand, but if the transport company, fertiliser spreader, rural contractor, or service technician is constrained, your business is still exposed. Fuel resilience is not just about what is in your own tank, it is about the resilience of the wider system around you (MBIE, 2025).
4. Flow-on effects into farm inputs
Fuel disruption doesn’t just affect what happens on farm, it can also flow through into the availability and cost of key inputs. Many fertilisers are closely linked to global energy markets, particularly natural gas, which is a major input into nitrogen fertiliser production. When energy markets tighten, fertiliser prices often follow.
Agrichemicals and other inputs can also be affected through higher manufacturing and freight costs, or delays in global shipping. Even areas like electronics and components used in farm equipment can be indirectly impacted by supply chain disruptions, particularly where specialist gases such as helium are used in manufacturing processes.
So what should farmers do now?
Here are some practical actions to take right now:
1. Work out where fuel is genuinely business-critical
Start with a quick fuel dependency audit. Ask:
- What jobs on this farm stop immediately without diesel or petrol?
- Which jobs are essential for animal welfare, water, milking, irrigation, or feeding?
- Which tasks could be delayed by a few days or done less often?
- Which parts of the business depend on contractors or suppliers who use fuel heavily?
A simple way to structure this is:
- critical within 24 hours
- important within 3–7 days
- deferrable if needed
This turns fuel from a background input into something you actively manage.
2. Know your actual fuel use, not just your gut feel
Most businesses are less precise here than they think. Work out:
- average weekly diesel use by season
- peak-use periods across the year
- proportion of use across vehicles, machinery, irrigation and pumping
- how many days of operation your storage actually covers during peak demand
Understanding energy use is the first step in improving efficiency and resilience (EECA, 2023).
3. Review on-farm storage, but do it safely and legally
A modest increase in storage or clearer refill triggers may help, but only if done properly.
Fuel storage on farms is regulated under hazardous substances rules, with requirements around safety, containment, and emergency planning (WorkSafe NZ, 2024).
Practical checks:
- tank condition and maintenance
- safe tanker access
- bunding, signage, and separation distances
- clear responsibility for monitoring and reordering
Also consider fuel security
One practical risk that is easy to overlook is security. Farms with bulk fuel storage can be vulnerable to theft, particularly during periods of higher fuel prices or supply uncertainty. Mitigate risk by:
ensuring tanks are in visible or well-trafficked areas where possible
using lockable valves or caps
maintaining good lighting around storage areas
keeping an eye on usage patterns so unexpected losses are noticed early
considering basic monitoring or cameras where appropriate
Like any farm input, fuel is a valuable asset. A few small steps can reduce the risk of opportunistic theft and give peace of mind.
4. Talk to your fuel supplier before there is a problem
If you rely on bulk delivery, have the conversation early. Ask about:
- delivery frequency
- lead times under pressure
- any expected constraints
- recommended reorder levels
Given most agricultural diesel is supplied via delivery rather than retail, these relationships and conversations are critical (EECA, 2023).
5. Reduce waste and non-essential trips
Common sense really, but important to start early as these small gains really matter when pargins tighten. The International Energy Agency highlights demand reduction as one of the fastest ways to respond to supply pressure (IEA, 2026).
On farm, that can mean:
- combining trips
- reducing unnecessary vehicle movement
- better route planning
- maintaining tyre pressure and servicing
- reducing idling
- ensuring equipment is running efficiently
6. Think through your pinch points for the next 90 days
Focus on what is coming and forward plan. Examples:
- irrigation
- calving or lambing
- feed supply
- cultivation or harvest
- stock transport
- generator reliance
7. Check your reliance on contractors and freight
- Which critical jobs rely on contractors?
- How fuel-intensive are they?
- Do we have alternatives?
- Where are we exposed to freight delays?
Shipping disruptions can increase both cost and timing risk, even when goods are still moving (UNCTAD, 2025).
8. Improve energy resilience where electrification makes sense
This is the longer-term opportunity, but reducing diesel dependence through efficiency and electrification can improve both cost control and resilience. EECA highlights options such as energy efficiency, solar generation, and equipment upgrades as practical steps for farm businesses (EECA, 2023).
This could include:
- solar for daytime loads
- batteries for critical backup
- more efficient pumps and motors
- variable speed drives
- replacing ageing diesel equipment with electric alternatives over time
For more information on this reach out to the Solayer team www.solayer.co.nz
9. Have a simple written continuity plan
Keep it simple but this level of planning improves response under pressure and reduces decision fatigue (CDEM, 2024).
- critical fuel uses
- minimum fuel levels
- monitoring responsibility
- priority allocation if supply tightens
- key contacts
- backup plans
10. Keep perspective
Yes, global fuel markets remain volatile. But New Zealand’s domestic supply is currently stable (MBIE, 2025–2026). Both can be true. Which is why the best response is neither denial nor drama, but sensible planning.
Farmers already manage uncertainty every day; weather, markets, animal health. Fuel risk is simply another layer to consider. Take the opportunity now to build resilience before it is immediately needed and more costly.
Reference list
MBIE (2025–2026). Fuel supply and security updates, New Zealand
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2026). Oil Market Reports and supply disruption analysis
UNCTAD (2025). Global trade impacts of Red Sea and Hormuz disruptions
EECA (2023). Off-road liquid fuel insights and on-farm energy guidance
WorkSafe NZ (2024). Above-ground fuel storage on farms guidance
CDEM (2024). Business resilience framework